Modi’s doom and Press punditry

The courtrooms are splurging in noise, so are the lawyers, the adjudicators as well as the mujrims. A death certificate has been issued. Twitterites as well as instagrammers have sounded the bungle. 2019 will be the year of Modi Mukt bharat. But we tend to overdrive as individuals, and more as political commentators. We make a mountain out of an invisible mole- more often because of the hysteria that media tends to create which indulges in both the pro and the con effect. The pro effect being political maniacs have a field day while self-obsessed mug “dikhaoing” news anchors of Noida can pursue their gossipy grapevine. The con effect remains that most of these punditry never materialise in a country of stark contradictions- saas bahu serials, Article 377 and MTV’s bold step to conceptualize lesbiandom. 2012 was a year which proved to be the most hilarious example of over punditry in the history of Indian state elections.

‘Akhilesh Yadav won a thumping majority against incumbent BSP. BJP came a distant third and the Congress under the “babalogs” fared in 6 more sits than its previous elections 2012. Privy to earlier year, everyone were abuzz about Rahul’s striking leadership in the General elections where a person called Salman Khurshid also won. The Congress backed almost 2 dozen sits. The Lutyens of the Capital was now considering the probability of Rahul becoming the next CM of Uttar Pradesh- UP was the ultimate rosy love of the anglophile PM of India in the 50s. 2012 UP elections showed the royal punditry had not come off age. Rather wilder possibilities were aired, greater coherence was shown in articulation, but what they missed in the full scenario were the installation to caveats-a must when someone discusses politics and politicians. Mulayam Singh Yadav was tamed down to be a possible PM of 2014 of a non-aligned political formation of 2014 with oddly 45-50 sits out of its catchment basin of 80.

The prophecies proved inaccurate, the intellectual allurements wrong. The Gujarat elections changed the mood of the nation 7 months later. I fear very strongly, the same mistake is being committed again, rather childishly and in an overtly thronging fashion. Almost every news channel is abuzz with the news whether there will be a tie up between the Dalit and the Yadav based parties in Uttar Pradesh – BSP and SP had been in alliance once in the 1990s albeit unsuccessfully. The fire has just got a bit wilder after a gossipy repartee came from the UP CM not denying the possibility altogether to counter the BJP. BSP has rejected even a modicum of a chance of such a bhaichara with the bhaiyaa of UP. But debates have gone ablaze in all political quarters. Few doubt the greatest onus to be put on UP elections waiting in 15 months. And it would also be the time when Modi will be directly challenged in the most populous and hence politically indispensable state where he held almost a 90% strike rate in 2014.

But are we predicting a Modi doom too soon? Yes. Because the BJP still is strong enough in its main bastions of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and a probable comeback in Karnataka and a phantomic rise in Kerala. Every political election is won by votes and arithmetic. So chemistry may be a factor in running alliances, but not in winning the festivity every 5 years. Bipolar states with Congress on the opposite table may be a cakewalk for the BJP even in 2019. And trends have shown that growing political conscience imply voters to ply in different ideological preferences between general and assembly elections. Delhi being the foremost example where three different political weightages were given on 2 different political parties in a course of only 450 days. 18 months earlier we had a vanquished Nitish, today a jubilant one-almost the apple of the eye in the secular brigade which by the way believes in communalizing elections not on the basis of religion, but through the identityof caste. Because in India, we have only been taught communalism on the basis of religiosity and not on the basis of any other factorisation.

So to call the shot even before the match started is more a gamble, less a picturesque prophecy. Rather, it is like those numerologists and astrologers who predict but seldom prove a theorem, not a geometric but a political one.


Terror has a religion

Terror has no religion. Religion has no terror. Both the arguments are somewhat misappropriate in the hunt. Religion has always been considered an important potent force of unification. But to quote many secular agonists as well as atheists, the cause of religion has started to become the reason of universal human degradation. Everybody talks of the silent majority-its power, its resilience, its resistance to the awkwardly inhospitable world. But when the noisy minority overruns the silent majority in the bid to counter and encounter the roadblock towards religious supranationalism – the entire protractor of spiritual serenity gets nipped in the bud. Paris is no stranger to terrorism, neither is the Western world, dealing with an increasing influx of the war ravaged hotspots in the Islamic domain. Aylan’s guileless, unmoving, stagnant body crying without the visible tears moved the world, forced candle light marches to and fro without parachuting into the problem of terrorism which has reduced an entire West Asia-to be the hubris of gunpowder.

Not even a year back, when the revolving Earth took a disastrous notice to the Charlie Hebdo massacre, the planet showed remorse, even moral aid. But what it missed out was on the probability or even a possibility of having a strict no legal solution towards scaremongering the Planetians, not only Parisians. The rise of Islamism or radical view of Caliphate is not a new story. The dream of the Prophet and the reality of the world had to be merged somehow. Sporadic November love of terrorists immersed in the choice of the date Friday-the 13th very clearly shows that the visionary of human slaughter was to be directly expounded on the streets of Romantic capital of the world. But contradictory principles of national interest of the leading “G” Group countries is forcing an overhaul of unity. Russia in the land of Syria has actively decided to support the Assad regime, while the pole positioned USA has decided to give rebels a greater weight. There are situations when an indirect war is being ravaged between the USA and Russian fronts as a means of achieving greater geo political leverage.

1980 Afghanistan showed what foreign occupation through vandal means can bring about. Similarly, the 2001- War against Terror created a miscreant which eventually resulted in little, other than the Nobel laurel for the present US Premier. Similarly, the notion of extremism must now be decided not on the value ruling of self-acclaimed, moral policemen of India, but by the global conscience of reunification against a force of terror. The sub-continent itself has been the breeding ground of terrorism and a mere name of one country is enough to support the statement. But, it is also time for the United Nations to come out of his titular slumber and forge unity in a world of 10 billion. If today terrorists can be united for the cause of jihad, the nations can also drag their internal, trifling differences in the view of a better tomorrow. When faced with Japanese aggression, the nationalists and the Communists in China fought shoulder to shoulder for almost a decade.

And then there are people who actually view the world through the lens of Newtonian philosophy of action and reaction and blame the Gujarati CM of 2002 for the same. Mani Shankar Aiyar- the person who indirectly helped the Brit PM to introduce the term chaiwala in his speech talked about the Islamophobia of France behind the Charlie Hebdo murder. “France has had Charlie Hebdo, because it banned Hijab.”- And the main stream media had little to offer except silent applause to an well-articulated, secular remark. I didn’t know secularism of Paris, can enviably bring votes in New Delhi. Terror does have a religion-that of hatred and blind prejudice.Well, marches have stopped, dissent/intolerance seems contained, national awards look happy with their change of address, Cow is in peace, and Anupam Kher doused in his show where “anything can happen”. Drama in India has gone for a pee, while the shit of the world awaits……